Mortality Associated with New Power Plants in Virginia and Surrounding
States
Richard Hermann
Advisor: Jack 0. Lanier, Dr. P.H., M.H.A., FACHE
Preceptor: Frank Divita, Jr., Ph.D.
Purpose - The purpose of this study is to predict the
number of premature deaths in Virginia and surrounding states that may
be expected if all of Virginia’s newly proposed fossil fuel electric utility power
plants are constructed and used for power generation.
Methods - In May 2002, we obtained a detailed Emissions Inventory for each of the 28 newly proposed power plants from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). All the data on the Emissions Inventory was provided to the DEQ by each individual company proposing the respective power plant. Information included estimated annual emissions of PM2.5, PM1O, S02, NOx, ammonia, VOC’s and ash content as well as the fuel type, number, type and capacity of boilers and stack parameters (height, circumference, flow rate and velocity). Longitude and latitude was also included in order to calculate climatological factors on pollution dispersion. This data was then input to an air quality model called the Climatological Regional Dispersion Model (CRDM). This calculated county-level annual average changes in concentrations of various PM2.5. Premature mortality for each county was then calculated by making use of the log-linear relationship between PM2.5 and premature death.
Results — Two hundred sixty-nine counties in 18 states and 9 major metropolitan areas were calculated to have measurable changes in PM2.5 as a result of the new power plants. Virginia was most significantly affected. These changes ranged from an additional 0.01 to 0.16 ug/m3 PM2.5 per year with a median of 00 1 ug/m3 per year. Corresp9ndingly, there is predicted to be an increase in the total number of premature deaths across the region as a whole, starting with 17.04 deaths per year (95% CI 11.93 —22.15) in 2004 and climbing to 19.41 deaths per year (95% CI 13.59—25.22) by 2020.
Discussion - Findings from this study indicate that a predicted number of premature deaths will occur as a result of increased PM2.5 in counties throughout Virginia as well as counties in 17 other states. This increase is over and above any other increases that will likely occur over the next two decades from other road, off-road and stationary area sources of emissions. From a• public health perspective, it would be reasonable to consider having epidemiological input from the medical community when considering the risks and benefits of developing and utilizing fossil fuel dependent power plants. Furthermore, the data from this study indicate that PM2.5 will cross state lines. This raises the question of what factors one state might take into consideration when developing energy production policies that significantly impact the public health interests other states. Numerous studies have found a significant relationship between fine particulate matter and mortality, hospital admissions, asthma attacks and other adverse health effects. Although scientists have not completely determined why particulate matter is so harmful from a biochemical standpoint, the strength of the association between PM2.5 and premature mortality is significant enough to apply precautionary principles with policy related to energy production from fossil fuels.
